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The Week Ahead: 4th – 8th October 2021

Overview for the Week Ahead

The safe-haven dollar found support just below last week’s peaks on Monday as renewed concerns about China’s property sector and looming U.S. labour data put investors in a cautious mood.

The greenback scaled a 14-month high on the euro and a 19-month top on the yen last week as markets reckoned U.S. interest rates could rise ahead of global peers.

Shares in embattled developer China Evergrande were halted in Hong Kong, rekindling market nerves about the possibility of contagion.

Evergrande said it requested a trading halt pending an announcement about a major transaction, while unit Evergrande Property Services Group said the announcement constitutes “a possible general offer for shares of the company.”

Investors are concerned that a collapse at Evergrande could hurt an already fragile Chinese economy and drag on global growth. The U.S. dollar index edged up 0.08% to 94.029.

Besides Evergrande, a Friday CNBC report which said U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai will announce on Monday that China is not complying with U.S.-China trade rules also provided support to the dollar, especially against the yuan.

Chinese markets are closed for National Day from Monday 4th – Wednesday 6th October.

The spotlight this week for Wall Street will be on labour market data, as investors await the release of the Labour Department’s September jobs report on Friday. Several earnings results from major consumer brands are also on tap.

Traders are looking to see payroll gains accelerate in September after a shockingly disappointing August jobs report when just 235,000 jobs came back versus the more than 700,000 expected. Consensus economists anticipate that 475,000 payrolls returned in September and that the unemployment rate fell to 5.1% or the lowest since March 2020.

This Week’s High Impact Events

The times below are GMT +3.

Monday 4^th October

• All-Day – OPEC Meetings & OPEC-JMMC Meetings

Potential instruments to Trade: All Crosses. 

Tuesday 5^th October

• 06.30 – Australia – RBA Rate Statement & Cash Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

• Tentative – Japan – BoJ Gov. Kuroda Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: JPY Crosses. 

• 17.00 – US – ISM Services PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

• 18.00 – Europe – ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.

• 20.15 – US – FOMC Member Quarles Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

Wednesday 6^th October

• 04.00 – New Zealand – Official Cash Rate & RBNZ Rate Statement

Potential instruments to Trade: NZD Crosses.

• 15.15 – US – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

• 17.30– US – Crude Oil Inventories

Potential instruments to Trade: USD & CAD Crosses.

Thursday 7^th October

• 15.30 – US – Unemployment Claims

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

• 17.00 – Canada – Ivey PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.

• 19.00 – Canada – BOC Gov. Macklem Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.

Friday 8^th October

• 03.30 – Australia – RBA Financial Stability Review

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses.

• 15.30 – Canada – Employment Change & Unemployment Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.

• 15.30 – US – Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, & Unemployment Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

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