The Week Ahead: 1st – 5th February 2021

Overview for the Week Ahead

Vaccination rates and availability of vaccines will be key areas of interest across the globe as we kick off a new month.

The market’s preferred Caixin manufacturing PMI on Monday set the tone coming in lower than expected at 51.5 which is the lowest level since July 2020. On Wednesday, the services PMI will also draw interest as the markets look for a pickup in private sector activity.

Following the recent spike in new COVID-19 cases, expect COVID-19 updates from China to affect the markets.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week down up 0.83% to CNY6.4283 against the U.S Dollar.

For Japan on the other hand, it is a relatively quiet week ahead. Finalized private sector PMIs for January are due out ahead of household spending figures on Friday.

The Japanese Yen ended the week up by 0.87% to ¥104.68 against the U.S Dollar.

For Australia, January manufacturing sector stats get the week going on Monday ahead of trade and retail sales figures on Thursday and Friday. While we can expect the stats to influence, the RBA monetary policy decision will also draw attention on Tuesday.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week down by 0.92% to $0.7644.

For the U.S., it’s another busy week ahead.

On Monday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for January will be in focus ahead. There would have to be a marked decline, however for the PMI to weigh on risk sentiment.

The focus will then shift to the market’s preferred ISM Non-manufacturing PMI and ADP nonfarm employment figures due out on Wednesday.

While we will expect the ADP numbers to influence, the non-manufacturing PMI will likely be the key driver.

On Thursday, the weekly jobless claims figures will be in focus ahead of nonfarm payroll and unemployment numbers on Friday.

The Dollar Spot Index ended the week up by 0.38% to 90.584.

For Europe, Germany, France, Spain and Italy all have releases this week. The focus will then shift to the ECB Economic Bulletin on Thursday German factory orders on Friday.

The EUR ended the week down by 0.29% to $1.3708.

For the U.K. this week, Key stats include finalized private sector PMI figures for January and January’s construction PMI. On Thursday, however, the main event will be the BoE’s first monetary policy decision of the year.

The Pound ended the week up by 0.16% to $1.3708.

This Week’s High Impact Events

The times below are GMT+2.

Monday 1^st February

11.30 – U.K. – Final Manufacturing PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 

17.00 – U.S. – ISM Manufacturing PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Tuesday 2^nd February

05.30 – Australia – RBA Rate Statement & Cash Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

23.45 – New Zealand – Employment Change q/q, & Unemployment Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: NZD Crosses. 

Wednesday 3^rd February

03.30 – Australia – RBA Gov. Lowe Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses.

11.30 – U.K. – Final Services PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 

15.15 – U.S. – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

17.00 – U.S. – ISM Services PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Thursday 4^th February

14.00 – U.K. – Asset Purchase Facility, BOE Monetary Policy Report, MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, Monetary Policy Statement & Official Bank Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 