ECB and Fed Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes in Focus.
Preliminary private sector PMIs for February will influence central bank policy goals on Thursday.
China reopens after the Chinese New Year holidays, with Beijing and the PBoC under the spotlight.
On Wednesday, the FOMC Meeting Minutes warrant investor attention. Recent economic indicators have sent mixed signals to the markets and the Fed. The Meeting Minutes could reinforce areas of focus, enabling the markets to recalibrate bets on an H1 Fed rate cut.
Jobless claims and private sector PMI numbers will garner investor interest on Thursday. The Services PMI will likely have more impact, accounting for more than 70% of the US economy. A pickup in service sector activity could reduce bets on an H1 2024 Fed rate cut. However, jobless claims also need consideration. An unexpected spike in jobless claims could spook the markets and bets on a no-landing.
On Wednesday, flash consumer confidence figures for the Eurozone will garner investor interest. An unexpected slide in confidence could impact buyer demand for the EUR/USD.
However, preliminary private sector PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone will likely impact the EUR/USD more on Thursday.
Beyond the numbers, the ECB will also be under the spotlight. The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will garner investor attention on Thursday. Agreement to delay discussions about interest cuts would drive buyer demand for the EUR. The January ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results may also influence EUR/USD trends on Friday.
On Thursday, UK preliminary private sector PMIs for February will put the Pound in focus. The UK Services PMI will impact the Pound more, with services accounting for over 70% of the UK economy.
On Tuesday, inflation figures for January warrant investor attention. Hotter-than-expected inflation numbers could influence the timeline for a Bank of Canada interest rate cut and the Loonie.
However, retail sales figures will also need consideration on Thursday. The Bank of Canada remains mindful of demand-driven inflation. Downward trends in retail sales could enable the BoC to begin discussions on interest rate cuts.
On Tuesday, the RBA Meeting Minutes put the Aussie dollar under the spotlight. The RBA Press Conference and Rate Statement left a rate hike on the table. Hawkish comments could influence near-term trends for the Aussie dollar as investors await the next set of inflation reports.
Have your trading charts ready this week!
This Week’s High Impact Events
The times below are GMT +2.
Monday 19th February
No High Impact Events
Tuesday 20th February
02.30 – Australia – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses.
03.15 – China – 1 Year & 5 Year Loan Prime Rate
Potential instruments to Trade: CNY Crosses.
15.30 – Canada – CPI m/m
Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.
Wednesday 21st February
03.30 – Australia – Wage Price Index q/q
Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses.
21.00 – US – FOMC Meeting Minutes
Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.
Thursday 22nd February
10.15 – Europe – Flash Manufacturing & Flash Services PMI
Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.
11.30 – UK – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
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