China is likely to report rapid economic expansion for the second quarter this week. The comparison with last year, when Shanghai was enduring a Covid-related lockdown, will make Monday’s gross domestic product data look a lot better than was the case. GDP likely grew 7.1% for the quarter on a year-over-year basis, up from 4.5% in the previous period, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Retail sales figures on Tuesday highlight a busy week of US indicators ahead of the Federal Reserve’s July 25-26 policy meeting. Economists project a healthy 0.5% advance for June sales that would add to evidence of a resilient consumer.
On Tuesday, a Fed report is projected to show little change in factory output last month, underscoring a sluggish manufacturing sector.
The highlight in Canada will be inflation data for June after the headline figure slowed to 3.4% in May. The key focus will be two measures tracked by the Bank of Canada: the trim and median core rates, and service inflation. Their persistence above target contributed to Wednesday’s decision to hike rates to 5%.
UK retail sales and deficit numbers due on Friday will also inform investors on the resilience of the consumer and the state of the public finances.
In the eurozone, the final take of inflation for June will be released on Wednesday, followed the same day by consumer confidence from across the region.
European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde is among policymakers speaking on Monday at a conference on central, eastern, and south-eastern European economies.
Have your trading charts ready for a very busy week!
This Week’s High Impact Events
The times below are GMT +3.
Monday 17th July
05.00 – China – GDP q/y
Potential instruments to Trade: CNY Crosses.
11.15 – Europe – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.
15.30 – US – Empire State Manufacturing Index
Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.
Tuesday 18th July
04.30 – Australia – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
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