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The Week Ahead: 15th – 19th January 2024

Overview for the Week Ahead 

It is an important week for investors, with the Chinese economy in the spotlight. Central Banks will be in focus as investors digest a full economic calendar. 

Highlights of the Week 

• US retail sales, labour market numbers, and Fed commentary to influence bets on a March Fed rate cut.  

• The euro area and UK economies will be in the spotlight, with economic indicators to dictate sentiment toward BoE and ECB interest rate cuts.  

• Economic indicators from China will influence market risk sentiment on Wednesday.  

On Tuesday, the Empire State Manufacturing will draw investor interest. Improving manufacturing sector conditions would support expectations of a soft landing. However, US retail sales figures (Wed) for December warrant investor attention. 

A sharp upswing in retail sales could fuel demand-driven inflation and force the Fed to delay cutting interest rates. 

On Thursday, US jobless claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing numbers will be in focus. Steady labour market and manufacturing sector conditions would further support bets on a soft landing. 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment numbers for January will wrap up a busy week for the US dollar. An unexpected rise in consumer sentiment could signal an upward trend in consumer spending. 

On Tuesday, labour market figures will put the Pound in focus. Wage growth remains a bugbear for the Bank of England. Softer wage growth and a rising UK unemployment rate could fuel bets on a Q1 BoE rate cut. 

On Wednesday, UK inflation numbers for December will also influence expectations on the timing of a BoE rate cut. 

However, retail sales figures (Fri) also warrant investor attention. An upward trend in consumer spending could fuel demand-driven inflation and BoE delay discussions on rate cuts. 

Other stats include housing sector data (Thurs) that will likely have a limited impact on BoE policy intentions. 

Beyond the numbers, BoE commentary and the BoE Credit Conditions Survey (Thurs) would also move the dial. 

Have your trading charts ready this week! 

This Week’s High Impact Events 

The times below are GMT +2. 

Monday 15^th January 

• No High Impact Events 

Tuesday 16^th January 

• 09.00 – UK – Claimant Count Change 

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.  

• 15.30 – Canada – CPI m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.  

• 15.30 – US – Empire State Manufacturing Index 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

• 17.00 – UK – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.  

Wednesday 17^th January 

• 04.00 – China – Industrial Production y/y 

Potential instruments to Trade: CNY Crosses.  

• 09.00 – UK – CPI y/y 

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.  

• 15.30 – US – Core Retail Sales m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Thursday 18^th January 

• 02.30 – Australia – Employment Change, Unemployment Rate 

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses.  

• 15.30 – US – Unemployment Claims 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Friday 19^th January 

• 09.00 – UK – Retail Sales m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.  

• 15.30 – US – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

If you have any questions or require any assistance, please contact one of our support team members via our Live Chat or email [email protected].

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