Errante’s The Week Ahead: 29th July – 2nd August 2024
Errante’s The Week Ahead: 29th July – 2nd August 2024
Errante’s The Week Ahead: 29th July – 2nd August 2024
Highlights of the Week:
Central Bank Insights: Key statements and policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Bank of England (BoE).
Inflation Data: German Prelim CPI and Swiss CPI to provide insights into Eurozone and Swiss inflation trends.
US Economic Indicators: Important releases including CB Consumer Confidence, JOLTS Job Openings, and the FOMC statement.
US Employment Data: The focus will be on the Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate reports.
Welcome to another insightful edition of the Errante’s The Week Ahead: 29th July – 2nd August 2024. As we head into this week, traders should prepare for a series of significant economic events that could drive market volatility and influence trading strategies.
Now What?
This week will be crucial for monitoring several currencies and indices, with key data releases and central bank activities providing critical insights.
For the USD, the Consumer Confidence Index and JOLTS Job Openings on Tuesday will shed light on the economic sentiment and labor market conditions. The Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday is highly anticipated, as any changes or hints regarding future rate moves will significantly influence market sentiment.
In the Eurozone, the German Prelim CPI m/m on Tuesday and Eurozone CPI on Wednesday will be crucial for understanding inflationary trends. These data points will influence the ECB’s future policy decisions.
The BoJ meeting on Wednesday will be watched closely for any changes in its ultra-loose monetary policy stance. Given Japan’s ongoing struggle with low inflation, any policy shifts could have substantial impacts on the JPY pairs.
The BoE meeting on Thursday is expected to provide insights into the UK’s monetary policy direction, with potential adjustments in response to inflationary pressures and economic conditions.
The latter part of the week will be dominated by labor market indicators. On July 31, the ADP Employment Change report will offer a preview of private sector job growth, setting the stage for the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls report on August 2. Current trends suggest a moderate increase in employment, aligning with the ongoing economic recovery.
A strong job report could reinforce expectations of a robust economy, potentially strengthening the USD and boosting investor confidence. Conversely, weaker job growth might increase speculations about the Fed’s rate cut in September, which could weigh on the USD but boost stock markets and commodities like gold and silver.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI on August 1 will also be crucial, with expectations of stable or slightly improving manufacturing activity, influencing industrial stocks and broader market sentiment.
Finally, robust labor data, combined with steady average hourly earnings and a stable unemployment rate, could affirm economic resilience, further supporting the USD and equity markets.
Market Events and Announcements
The times below are GMT +3.
Monday, July 29, 2024:
No major events.
Tuesday, July 30, 2024:
All Day – EUR German Prelim CPI m/m: An important measure of inflation in Germany, providing insights into price stability and potential ECB actions.
5:00 PM – USD CB Consumer Confidence: A key indicator of consumer sentiment and economic health.
5:00 PM – USD JOLTS Job Openings: Provides information on labor market conditions and job availability.
Wednesday, July 31, 2024:
4:30 AM – AUD CPI q/q and y/y: Measures inflation in Australia, influencing RBA policy.
4:30 AM – AUD Trimmed Mean CPI q/q: Offers a view of core inflation trends in Australia.
4:30 AM – CNY Manufacturing PMI: Reflects economic health and manufacturing activity in China.
Tentative – JPY BoJ Policy Rate, Monetary Policy Statement, Outlook Report, and Press Conference: Key for understanding BoJ’s stance on monetary policy.
12:00 PM – EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y: Provides insights into core inflation trends in the Eurozone.
12:00 PM – EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y: Indicates overall inflation trends in the Eurozone.
3:15 PM – USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: A precursor to the more comprehensive NFP report, indicating private sector employment changes.
3:30 PM – CAD GDP m/m: Measures monthly economic activity in Canada.
9:00 PM – USD Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement: Highly anticipated, as it provides the Fed’s interest rate decision and economic outlook.
Thursday, August 1, 2024:
2:00 PM – GBP BoE Monetary Policy Report and MPC Official Bank Rate Votes: Key for understanding BoE’s policy direction.
2:30 PM – GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks: Provides insights into the BoE’s economic and monetary policy outlook.
3:30 PM – USD Unemployment Claims: Weekly data on jobless claims, providing insights into the labor market.
Friday, August 2, 2024:
9:30 AM – CHF CPI m/m: Measures inflation in Switzerland, influencing SNB policy.
3:30 PM – USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m: Indicates wage inflation, important for understanding labor cost pressures.
3:30 PM – USD Non-Farm Employment Change: The headline NFP report, crucial for assessing employment trends.
3:30 PM – USD Unemployment Rate: Measures the percentage of unemployed workers, a key indicator of labor market health.
Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch
Chart 1: Hong Kong 50 (HSI) on Weekly Chart
The Hong Kong 50 Index (HSI) on the weekly chart, has been in a downtrend, breaking below the support level at 16,445.36. This move suggests further declines, with the next supports at 15,810.59 and 15,315.50.
Key Levels:
Support: 15,810.59, 15,315.50
Resistance: 16,867.50, 17,460, 18,419.50
Impact of Upcoming Events:
Chinese Economic Data: Weak consumer demand and deflationary pressures from China could weigh on the HSI, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Corporate Earnings Reports: Quarterly earnings from major companies on the Hang Seng Index could add volatility, with disappointing results likely to drive the index lower.
Chart 2: Silver on Weekly Chart
Silver has completed a double top pattern at $31.863 and has broken the key support at $28.563, suggesting a bearish scenario.
Key Levels:
Support: $26.316, $25.263
Resistance: $29.824, $31.863
Impact of Upcoming Events:
US and Chinese Economic Data: Positive reports could boost industrial demand for silver. Conversely, weaker data might lead to further declines.
Federal Reserve Meeting: Any dovish signals from the Fed could support silver prices, while hawkish comments might pressure them lower.
Errante’s Weekly Newsletter brings you critical market insights to keep you ahead in the financial world. Stay informed and make strategic decisions with Errante.
If you have any questions or require any assistance, please contact one of our support team members via our Live Chat or email [email protected].
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